Updated 19:23 PST
First things first: Get your asses out there and vote! (if you haven’t done so already)
Here’s my prediction for today:
You can create your own using the tool at Real Clear Politics. There are many of these sites for those hopelessly addicted to polling crack. My map is pretty optimistic. I’m predicting a landslide victory for Obama, and counting on unexpected voter turn out to push North Carolina and Georgia out of the “toss-up” and McCain territory into Obama-land. I couldn’t quite bring myself to do the same for Montana and Arizona. I believe that McCain’s desperate gamble in PA has “FAIL” written all over it.
If you want to fill one out as the returns come in, here’s a blank one I found on flickr (click on “All Sizes” to get to a larger printable version):
Finally, here’s a great list from the AP of things to watch for as the results come rolling in. Results from North Carolina, Virginia and Florida may call the election for the rest of the U.S.
In California, I’m especially anxious about Prop 8. Recent polls seem to contradict each other–who knows how this one will land…
I’m going to leave this post open and try to update it as the day progresses. Please feel free to share your own predictions, voting experiences, worries, and hopefully, later tonight, your joys and schadenfreude.
I actually have a work deadline today–not quite sure how I’m going to manage it with all this election day excitement to distract me. Also, if you’re in the UCI neighborhood, please join me and friends at the Anteater Pub tonight, after 9:00pm to watch the returns there.
[Update 8:30 PST]
Photos from my voting experience:
I’m a dork, btw. I have an absentee ballot, and could’ve walked straight into the station and dropped it off, but I wanted the full experience of standing in line, chatting with fellow voters, and getting my sticker.
[Update 13:15 PST]
Karl Rove is calling it in favor of Obama, 338:200. Weird to post a positive link to someone I see joining Brutus, Cheney and Anne Coulter for Lucifer’s midnight snack. Anyhow, key differences between our electoral maps: Rove gives North Dakota, North Carolina and Georgia to McCain, which is closer to the polling. Mine’s a bit of a gamble, I have to admit.
{Update 19:23 PST]
Nate Silver of fivethiryeight is calling it now for Obama, after it became clear that he won Ohio and Pennsylvania. Nate’s added up the electoral votes for called states with those from “safe” states, and Obama’s past the coveted 270 mark. If it’s good enough for Nate Silver, it’s good enough for me. I’m resting easy.
13 responses so far ↓
1 minxlj // Nov 4, 2008 at 8:22 am
I’m loving all that blue…let’s keep our fingers crossed then!! I’m having a nap when I get home from work then staying up to watch the BBC full coverage from midnight
2 xJane // Nov 4, 2008 at 8:26 am
I’d been hearing predictions of doom and gloom for polling place lines, so I resolved to get to the polling place at about 10 minutes before it opened to ensure that I could get to school on time. My husband and heard similar predictions & resolved to get there 40 minutes before it opened. We got there early and were 4th & 5th in line. Everyone else had heard there would be lines, too. By the time the polls opened, there were 50 people in line—mostly because they’d heard that there would be long lines. I know this is a bigger election than usual, but I wonder how much of it is because of the hype.
I have voted! Now, to sit back and watch the country go down the crapper. (Hopefully not, but as I told DH as we left this morning, I don’t have that much hope in my fellow American.)
3 John // Nov 4, 2008 at 11:02 am
minxlj, it’s great to see you here! We’re keeping our fingers crossed, too…
xJane, I agree with you about the tendency to create self-fulfilling prophecies, but this may be the real deal. Long lines are being reported throughout the East Coast, and it’s well into the afternoon there.
4 xJane // Nov 4, 2008 at 1:51 pm
I have to say that my gut reaction to Rove’s “calling it” is one of cynicism. Is he trying to get dems to rest on their laurels (like we’ve been known to do) or get reps fired up so that they turn out in droves to cause an upset (like they’ve been known to do). It’s hard for me to think of Rove’s motives as being anything but calculating.
5 xJane // Nov 4, 2008 at 2:08 pm
Voting as a Religious Experience is apropos of this day and this site. I would tag it with Ritual if this were a post.
6 angryyoungwoman // Nov 4, 2008 at 3:46 pm
When I went to vote today there wasn’t a really long line, but there was a line (I’ve never had to stand in line to vote before) and the women at the polls said more people had come than they’d ever seen before.
7 ebrown // Nov 4, 2008 at 4:31 pm
I voted in person. There was a short line. I got my sticker showing that I voted plus a free cup of coffee at Starbucks. Love going to the polls but it will probably end as an option soon. (WA will eliminate polling places for the next election.)
8 xJane // Nov 4, 2008 at 6:15 pm
ebrown: is WA going completely caucus…? or completely absentee?
9 John // Nov 4, 2008 at 7:43 pm
I’m resting easy that Obama’s winning this. He’s got Ohio and Pennsylvania. California’s safely in the bag. McCain had to get PA and every toss-up state to win.
10 EBrown // Nov 4, 2008 at 9:27 pm
All voting will be absentee in Washington. They have been moving toward this for a number of years.
11 minxlj // Nov 5, 2008 at 2:41 am
Wow - your 382 guess wasn’t that over-the-top then, was it? I was soooo excited last night watching all the results come in. I have to admit, despite my fierce hope that he would win, I had a nagging dread that somehow McCain and Ms Vapid would win…stuff of nightmares, I know.
I’m so happy for the US but saddened by reports that Prop 8 has passed. I have to say - WHAT THE HELL?! I’m confused that the Supreme Court can be overridden in their decision, and stunned that this could possibly go ahead. The ramifications of this are huge.
Via wilwheaton.typepad.com: “”One thing to remember, voting NO changes nothing. It doesn’t affect a single thing. Only a yes vote changes what is currently legal here in California. Do we teach same-sex marriage in schools now? NO. Is it affecting you in any way now, NO. Only a yes vote changes anything. A Yes vote puts discrimination into our state constitution.”
12 John // Nov 5, 2008 at 7:48 am
minxlj, it’s very easy (perhaps too easy) in California to amend the state constitution–a simple majority on a ballot measure is all it takes. The good news is that time is on our side–gay marriage is slowly normalizing with each generation. The bad news is that gays will have to suffer until then…
And thanks for Wil’s quote. It’s the thing that confuses me the most, that otherwise decent people were so callous and cruel, or so afraid of something so nebulous that they were willing to stamp on the happiness of others.
13 xJane // Nov 5, 2008 at 11:43 am
minxlj—the battle is not yet over, there will be a number of legal challenges (based upon that—I’m not sure that an Amendment to the Constitution can be objected to on the basis that it is unconstitutional, but there are legal challenges drafted and waiting to be filed).
I’m also surprised that this discrimination was so pervasive—something to be said for right-wing religious money, neh? We will fight, though.
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