This chart from American Research Group shows Obama siphoning off Clinton’s supporters. In the space of three to four days, Clinton has lost her 6% lead and is now trailing by 10%. I had expected Obama to cut into that lead, but not to completely reverse it. What is going on in Wisconsin? I have some ideas, but I thought I’d throw this out there first–what do you think is reflected in these numbers?
4 responses so far ↓
1 the narrator // Feb 19, 2008 at 8:24 am
My view is that Wisconsin[ians?] have realized that Hillary Clinton treats them like ignorant children. Her charges against Obama’s refusal to agree to her pathetic one debate-per-week demand should be clear to anyone with some education and reasoning skills as a ploy to drum up an excuse to spit trash from her acidic mouth. As she does better with those with the least amount of education possible, more and more of politically aware participants are seeing her attacks as desperate measures from the type of politics that American’s want to get away from. While her tactics may work better in a general elections, in a primary election where the issues are more important to the investigating voters, her personal attacks (unlike sticks and stones) are simply ‘just words.’
2 Carrie102 // Feb 19, 2008 at 9:30 am
Wisconsin is a state of both highly educated and blue collar workers. Almost all of them have a very active interest in politics. (We only take our sports teams more seriously.)
Obama has an upbeat message and like the rest of the country, Wisconsinites are ready for a change. Many people believe Barack will work hard to include the American people in making important decisions regarding the direction of the country over the years of his presidency. And he’s built a very able campaign team, which should translate into building a great new group of able government leaders. Best of all, he can beat the Republican candidate in Nov.
Hillary gets the Dems that are practical and value experience. She appeals to some women who never expected to see a woman as president. But her politics-as-usual attitude is perhaps not working quite so well for her. And in the last week, she and her husband have resorted to attacking and trying to win, at ANY cost. The Clinton’s look desperate. It remains to be seen if my fellow Wisconsin voters will see through those tactics and reject them.
My husband and I voted a couple hours ago. If Obama can become the Democratic nominee, the Brewer’s should be able to win the NLC, right?
3 John // Feb 19, 2008 at 11:02 am
Thanks to both of you, but especially to Carrie for the insider’s perspective. (Go Brewers!)
I wondered if the negative campaigning was part of what sent her support plummeting. It’s a risky business, I guess–sometimes these attacks work (Karl Rove has used them effectively).
It also probably doesn’t hurt that Obama outspent Clinton 4 to 1 in Wisconsin. Also, I can’t find a reference, but I read somewhere that he opened 2-3 times as many local campaign offices in the state.
4 wren // Feb 20, 2008 at 8:02 am
Many Obama supporters in MN have been canvassing in WI in recent weeks (when the wind chill wasn’t -39). What I’ve heard from some of them and from my family in WI (who are fairly conservative) is that people don’t like the jabs Clinton is making. Good German and Scandinavian Lutherans prefer to pass their judgments in small gossip circles, preferably with a slice of coffee cake, not on national tv. Hey, I was raised as a such a Lutheran. I know the culture.
More than one person has made the comment that Clinton has ignored the Midwest, sending her daughter to do most of her bidding in WI while she’s been courting TX. Obama visited at least 2 cities there in the last week.
We don’t like to be treated as mere flyover country in the Midwest. It seems Clinton is treating this more as a numbers game and Obama is treating people as worthy of respect regardless of the size of their delegate block. It helps, too, that he’s an IL senator and his mother’s family is from KS.
Obama went to Nebraska before the caucus there. It’s a very red and sparsely populated state. It’s not many delegates. People started lining up over 6 hours before he took to the stage. He was the first presidential candidate to visit NE during primary season in over 20 years. The dems always ignored it and the reps took it for granted.
As a supporter, of course I could list a litany of reasons I think Obama is the better choice. But when it comes to why the late shift in support to Obama, I believe the main reason is attention and respect. He’s been giving it to the Midwest and she hasn’t.
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